TY - JOUR TI - Dominant tree species are at risk from exaggerated drought under climate change AU - Fensham, Roderick J. AU - Fraser, Josie AU - Macdermott, Harry J. AU - Firn, Jenifer T2 - Global Change Biology AB - Predicting the consequences of climate change on forest systems is difficult because trees may display species-specific responses to exaggerated droughts that may not be reflected by the climatic envelope of their geographic range. Furthermore, few studies have examined the postdrought recovery potential of drought-susceptible tree species. This study develops a robust ranking of the drought susceptibility of 21 tree species based on their mortality after two droughts (1990s and 2000s) in the savanna of north-eastern Australia. Drought-induced mortality was positively related to species dominance, negatively related to the ratio of postdrought seedlings to adults and had no relationship to the magnitude of extreme drought within the species current geographic ranges. These results suggest that predicting the consequences of exaggerated drought on species' geographic ranges is difficult, but that dominant species like Eucalyptus with relatively slow rates of population recovery and dispersal are the most susceptible. The implications for savanna ecosystems are lower tree densities and basal area. DA - 2015/10// PY - 2015 DO - 10.1111/gcb.12981 VL - 21 IS - 10 SP - 3777 EP - 3785 SN - 13652486 KW - Climate change KW - Climate envelopes KW - Drought-induced tree mortality KW - Recruitment KW - Resilience KW - Savanna ER -