As extreme weather events and ocean warming increasingly impact ecosystems and economies worldwide, South Africa is playing a leading role in global ocean observing science. Through the National Research Foundation (NRF) and its business unit, the South African Environmental Observation Network (NRF-SAEON), South African scientists are directly shaping international strategies to co-design global ocean observing systems and improve Earth system forecasts.
Prof. Juliet Hermes, NRF-SAEON Manager and Co-Chair of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Observation Coordination Group (OCG), recently returned from the Joint SynObs & GOOS Ocean Observing Co-Design International Workshop in Mutsu, Japan. The meeting brought together leading international modeling centers, observationalists, and global bodies, including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to quantitatively evaluate how ocean observations directly power weather, ocean, and climate predictions.
Leading Regional Solutions for Global Impact
At the heart of the workshop was the global GOOS Ocean Observing Co-Design Programme, an initiative connecting the entire value chain from ocean observers and modelers to local end-users. South Africa is actively leading two critical international pilots (exemplars) under this programme:
- Marine Heatwave (MHW) Exemplar: Co-led globally by Prof. Hermes, this initiative focuses on deploying subsurface profiling platforms (such as autonomous gliders, Argo floats, and moored buoys) to monitor deep thermal dynamics. Because marine heatwaves extend far beneath the ocean surface, real-time subsurface data is crucial for protecting benthic ecosystems and coastal fisheries.
- Boundary Current Exemplar (The Agulhas Current): Representing South African and regional ocean interests, Dr Tammy Morris (NRF-SAEON) virtually presented the design plan for the Agulhas Current pilot study. Secured alongside Japan’s Kuroshio Extension as a primary international benchmark, the Agulhas Current pilot evaluates how targeted observations along one of the world’s most energetic western boundary currents directly improve regional forecast skill, cyclone tracking, and early warning systems.
Why Ocean Observations Matter in Forecasting
A central takeaway from the SynObs workshop is that ocean observations are no longer just for climate monitoring, they are indispensable for operational weather prediction. Advanced coupled atmosphere-ocean models show that assimilating three-dimensional, in-situ ocean data (such as temperature and salinity profiles) reduces forecast error across medium-range weather windows (up to 10 days).
Without subsurface ocean observations, seasonal forecasting skill for events like El Niño deteriorates significantly, shortening early-warning lead times by up to two months. As background ocean temperatures reach record highs, tracking heat content below the surface provides the critical initial state needed for numerical models to predict extreme heatwaves, severe storms, and changing rainfall patterns.
Empowering South Africa and the Blue Economy
By embedding South African observing assets, managed through NRF-SAEON, the South African Polar Research Infrastructure (SAPRI), and regional modeling platforms like SOMISANA, into global evaluation frameworks, the NRF is quantitatively proving the value of national scientific investments.
“Connecting our regional observations directly to global data assimilation pipelines and multi-system modeling frameworks ensures that our science isn’t just world-class, but directly serves our society,” notes Prof. Hermes. “It ensures our local coastal forecasting platforms deliver actionable, early-warning intelligence for coastal community resilience, fisheries management, and South Africa’s broader blue economy.”
Through leadership in GOOS, OCG, and the upcoming OceanObs’29 conference, the NRF is bringing a vital Global South perspective to international ocean governance, ensuring regional priorities shape global policy, technology pipelines, and funding strategies for the decade ahead.
For more information on South Africa’s ocean observing initiatives, visit www.saeon.ac.za or www.nrf.ac.za.
